Climate warming will enlarge potential of the Northern Sea Route by the middle of the century
15:36 12 ноября 2018
Категории: News in English
Increase in air temperature in arctic regions of Russia will lead to a number of positive consequences, including the opportunity to increase exploitation time of the Northern Sea Route on a month. This opinion was voiced by professor of the State Hydrological Institute Oleg Anisimov.
“Duration of operation of the entire Northern Sea Route makes two months on an average now. According to forecasts, which are based on climate models, by the middle of the century this period will increase on a month, that is, there will be three months, what gives huge new economic opportunities”, Oleg Anisimov said.
According to professor, warming in the Russian Arctic is happening quite rapidly, as TASS reports.
“The average annual growth rate is 0.4-0.8 degrees per 10 years. This is a lot, because during 100 years the global rate has increased on 0.8 degrees, and in the Arctic this temperature increase occurs in just 10 years”, Oleg Anisimov explained.
According to professor, warming will also increase the working season of river transport. On an average, navigation on large arctic rivers takes four months and grows on four to five days per 10 years. However, at the same time, warming reduces the period of use of winter roads.
Professor of the George Washington University (the USA) Nikolay Shiklomanov adds that even according to the most extreme forecasts, ice from the Arctic will not disappear, this phenomenon can last only a week in maximum. According to various estimates, it can happen from the 2030-s to the 2070-s.
“Thus, navigation in the Arctic will need the icebreaking fleet, maybe not so powerful. Still, climate conditions in the Arctic will stay difficult for navigation, but, of course, ice will be thinner”, the scientist said.